Impacts of Political Risk and Macroeconomics Factors Towards Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries

Authors

  • Nur Izwan Faris Nur Mohamad Department of Finance and Accounting, Faculty of Business Management and Professional Studies, Management and Science University, Selangor, Malaysia
  • Jaizah Othman Department of Finance and Accounting, Faculty of Business Management and Professional Studies, Management and Science University, Selangor, Malaysia
  • Raudhah Mohd Tarmizi Department of Finance and Accounting, Faculty of Business Management and Professional Studies, Management and Science University, Selangor, Malaysia
  • Nurul Nadia Mohamad Hamidi Department of Finance and Accounting, Faculty of Business Management and Professional Studies, Management and Science University, Selangor, Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.56225/ijfeb.v2i1.47

Keywords:

foreign direct investment, political risk, macroeconomics factors, developing countries

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between macroeconomic factors and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in developing countries. The data from the World Bank covers 21 years, from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed using the panel regression approach with E-Views. Panel regression analysis, including model selections and diagnostics, is used for inferential analysis. The main contribution of this study is the influence of political factors on FDI inflows. Political stability and corruption control are technically the most important conditions for FDI inflows in developing countries and were introduced in this study. This study found a positive relationship between GDP growth rate, imports, inflation, and corruption index with FDI inflow, confirmed by previous studies. The study also implies that the exchange rate, exports, and political stability have a negative relationship with the level of FDI in developing countries. In addition, the study found that GDP growth rate, imports, and exports significantly impact FDI inflows in developing countries, while the other variables are not significant. In other words, this result shows that macroeconomic and political factors such as import, export, exchange rate, corruption control, and political stability impact FDI inflows. Moreover, this paper provides policy recommendations to support developing countries' economies by attracting FDI and increasing its inflow.

References

Abbas, D. S., & Eksandy, A. (2021). Intellectual Capital Food and Beverage Sub-Sector Manufacturing Companies and the Factors. International Journal of Science, Technology & Management, 2(2), 432–442. https://doi.org/10.46729/ijstm.v2i2.176

Agudze, K., & Ibhagui, O. (2021). Inflation and FDI in industrialized and developing economies. International Review of Applied Economics, 35(5), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2020.1853683

Ali, S. H., & Jameel, S. A. (2021). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Gross Domestic Product in Iraq During the Period (2006 - 2015). Academic Journal of Nawroz University, 10(1), 382. https://doi.org/10.25007/ajnu.v10n1a1122

Anam, F. S., & Saputra, S. A. (2021). The Effect of Human Development Index (IPM), Gini Ratio, and Gross Domestic Products on the Number of Stunting in Indonesia. Int. J. Innov. Sci. Res. Technol, 34(1), 50–62.

Ausloos, M., Eskandary, A., Kaur, P., & Dhesi, G. (2019). Evidence for Gross Domestic Product growth time delay dependence over Foreign Direct Investment. A time-lag dependent correlation study. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 527, 121181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.121181

Aziz, O. G. (2022). FDI inflows and economic growth in Arab region: The institutional quality channel. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 27(1), 1009–1024. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2197

Baek, I.-M., & Okawa, T. (2001). Foreign exchange rates and Japanese foreign direct investment in Asia. Journal of Economics and Business, 53(1), 69–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0148-6195(00)00038-2

Bandyopadhyay, S., Sandler, T., & Younas, J. (2014). Foreign direct investment, aid, and terrorism. Oxford Economic Papers, 66(1), 25–50. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpt026

Blonigen, B. A. (2019). Firm-Specific Assets and the Link Between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment. In The American Economic Review (pp. 89–120). JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813277014_0003

Bollen, K. A., & Brand, J. E. (2010). A General Panel Model with Random and Fixed Effects: A Structural Equations Approach. Social Forces, 89(1), 1–34. https://doi.org/10.1353/sof.2010.0072

Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239–253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111

Caves, R. E. (1989). Mergers, takeovers, and economic efficiency. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 7(1), 151–174. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-7187(89)90051-9

Chen, N., Chen, H.-C., & Lin, R.-S. (2022). FDI, exports and export spillover in Taiwan’s electronics industry. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 27(1), 26–63. https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860.2020.1827941

Choong, C.-K., & Lam, S.-Y. (2010). The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Malaysia: A Revisit. Global Economic Review, 39(2), 175–195. https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2010.483837

Chow, G. C. (1960). Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions. Econometrica, 28(3), 591–605. https://doi.org/10.2307/1910133

Ciobanu, R., Șova, R.-A., & Popa, A. F. (2020). The Impact of FDI over Economic Growth and how COVID-19 Crisis Can Impact the CEE Economies. CECCAR Business Review, 2020(4), 64–72. https://doi.org/10.37945/cbr.2020.04.08

Egger, P., & Winner, H. (2005). Evidence on corruption as an incentive for foreign direct investment. European Journal of Political Economy, 21(4), 932–952. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2005.01.002

Ercolani, M. G. (2004). Essays in Panel Data Econometrics. The Economic Journal, 114(496), F340–F341. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2004.00226_5.x

Filiz, K. (2014). FDI and total factor productivity relations: An empirical analysis for BRIC and Turkey. Advances in Management, 7(3), 23–29.

Ford, T. C., Rork, J. C., & Elmslie, B. T. (2007). Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, and the Human Capital Threshold: Evidence from US States*. Review of International Economics, 16(1), 96–113. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2007.00726.x

Gani, A. (2007). Governance and foreign direct investment links: evidence from panel data estimations. Applied Economics Letters, 14(10), 753–756. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850600592598

Harms, P., & Ursprung, H. W. (2002). Do Civil and Political Repression Really Boost Foreign Direct Investments? Economic Inquiry, 40(4), 651–663. https://doi.org/10.1093/ei/40.4.651

Helpman, E. (1984). A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations. Journal of Political Economy, 92(3), 451–471. https://doi.org/10.1086/261236

Hossain, M. S. (2016). Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Freedom and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(11), 200–214. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n11p200

Hu, A. G. Z. (2000). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in China. Journal of Asian Economics, 11(4), 471–475. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1049-0078(00)00072-5

Janaćković, M., & Janaćković, T. (2019). The impact of political risk on foreign direct investment. Ekonomski Signali, 14(2), 15–30.

Kasasbeh, H. A., Mdanat, M. F., & Khasawneh, R. (2018). Corruption and FDI Inflows: Evidence from a Small Developing Economy. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 8(8), 1075–1085. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2018.88.1075.1085

Khan, H., Weili, L., & Khan, I. (2022). The role of institutional quality in FDI inflows and carbon emission reduction: evidence from the global developing and belt road initiative countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(20), 30594–30621. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17958-6

Kirti, R., & Prasad, S. (2016). FDI Impact on Employment Generation and GDP Growth in India. Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, 3(1), 40–48. https://doi.org/10.20448/journal.501/2016.3.1/501.1.40.48

Kogut, B., & Chang, S. J. (1996). Platform Investments and Volatile Exchange Rates: Direct Investment in the U.S. by Japanese Electronic Companies. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(2), 221. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109924

Kok, R., & Acikgoz Ersoy, B. (2009). Analyses of FDI determinants in developing countries. International Journal of Social Economics, 36(1/2), 105–123. https://doi.org/10.1108/03068290910921226

Kurtović, S., Maxhuni, N., Halili, B., & Talović, S. (2020). The determinants of FDI location choice in the Western Balkan countries. Post-Communist Economies, 32(8), 1089–1110. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2020.1722584

Lim, E.-G. (2001). Determinants of, and the Relation Between, Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: A Summary of the Recent Literature. IMF Working Papers, 01(175), 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451858754.001

Mahmood, H. (2018). An investigation of macroeconomic determinants of FDI inflows in Bangladesh. 22(1), 1–7.

Mengistu, A. A., & Adhikary, B. K. (2011). Does good governance matter for FDI inflows? Evidence from Asian economies. Asia Pacific Business Review, 17(3), 281–299. https://doi.org/10.1080/13602381003755765

Moulton, B. R., & Randolph, W. C. (1989). Alternative Tests of the Error Components Model. Econometrica, 57(3), 685–693. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911059

Onwuka, K. O., & Zoral, K. Y. (2009). Foreign direct investment and imports growth in Turkey. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 4(15), 2357–2380.

Pla Gutierrez, K. (2015). The effect of corruption on FDI in Argentina: has corruption acted as a negative determinant discouraging FDI? Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona.

Rob, R., & Vettas, N. (2003). Foreign Direct Investment and Exports with Growing Demand. Review of Economic Studies, 70(3), 629–648. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-937X.00259

Rodrik, D. (1999). Where did all the growth go? External shocks, social conflict, and growth collapses. Journal of Economic Growth, 4(4), 385–412. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009863208706

Salman, M., Zha, D., & Wang, G. (2022). Indigenous versus foreign innovation and ecological footprint: Dynamic threshold effect of corruption. Environmental and Sustainability Indicators, 14, 100177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2022.100177

Schneider, F., & Frey, B. S. (1985). Economic and political determinants of foreign direct investment. World Development, 13(2), 161–175. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(85)90002-6

Seier, E. (2002). Comparison of tests for univariate normality. InterStat Statistical Journal, 1, 1–17.

Serfraz, A. (2018). Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Labor Productivity in Pakistan: A Sector-Wise Panel Cointegration Analysis. Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, 5(1), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.20448/journal.501.2018.51.1.18

Shrestha, N. (2020). Detecting Multicollinearity in Regression Analysis. American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 8(2), 39–42. https://doi.org/10.12691/ajams-8-2-1

Sileyew, K. (2019). Research Design and Methodology. Text Mining-Analysis, Programming and Application. Intech Open.

Sundram, V. P. a/l K., Govindaraju, C., & Bhatti, M. A. (2012). Research Methods: A Work Book for Business Undergraduates. Penerbit, Universiti Teknologi Mara.

Tocar, S. (2018). Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Review. Review of Economic and Business Studies, 11(1), 165–196. https://doi.org/10.1515/rebs-2018-0069

Udoh, E., & Egwaikhide, F. (2010). Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation Uncertainty and Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria. Botswana Journal of Economics, 5(7), 14–31. https://doi.org/10.4314/boje.v5i7.60304

Ul-Islam, T. (2011). Normality testing-A new direction. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2(3).

Wafure, O. G., & Nurudeen, A. (2010). Determinants of foreign direct investment in Nigeria: An empirical analysis. Global Journal of Human Social Science, 10(1), 26–34.

Yadav, A., Sahu, D., & Singh, A. (2019). Effect of Corruption on FDI Inflows and Economic Growth: An Indian Perspective. Journal of Commerce and Accounting Research, 8(4), 28–33.

Young, D. S. (2018). Handbook of Regression Methods. Chapman and Hall/CRC. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315154701

Zikmund, W. G., Babin, B. J., Carr, J. C., & Griffin, M. (2009). Business research methods (with qualtrics card). Cengage Learning.

Zubedi, A., Jianqiu, Z., Ali, Q., Memon, I., & Zubedi, E. (2022). Impact of Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, and FDI through Environmental Kuznets Curve: Perspective from Belt and Road Initiative and Pakistan. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2022, 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/3130605

Downloads

Published

2023-03-31

How to Cite

Nur Mohamad, N. I. F., Othman, J., Mohd Tarmizi, R., & Mohamad Hamidi, N. N. (2023). Impacts of Political Risk and Macroeconomics Factors Towards Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries. International Journal of Finance, Economics and Business, 2(1), 61–75. https://doi.org/10.56225/ijfeb.v2i1.47

Issue

Section

Articles
Abstract viewed = 318 times